Convergence

Ask yourself: what can I get from TV that I can't get from the internet? The internet can stream the kind of high-quality video we've come to expect from cable TV. It also presents a vastly greater set of entertainment options: watching movies and shows on Netflix or Hulu, viewing funny home videos on Youtube, chatting with friends, and playing games, to name a few. It can be carried around with us on small wireless devices like netbooks or tablets, and can thus be experienced outdoors or in the comfort of our home. In contrast, our cable boxes are anchored firmly in our homes, and TV presents us only with scheduled video content.

So what does TV have left? Two weapons: channel-surfing, and high production value content. Cable TV presents us with a stream of content that we can flip through for hours, and which requires very little effort to do so. This has kept TV the reigning champion of time-wasting and unwinding activities. In contrast, we have to seek out what we want to watch on the internet. While we have more options in this regard, there's no way to simply flip through the channels. Additionally, there are still a lot of shows and live events covered on TV that the networks don't provide on the internet, at least not right away. The rise of Netflix and Hulu have been signaling the end of this exclusivity, though, and it won't be long before networks migrate their channels to the internet.

Once this convergence occurs, convenience will be the final death of TV. Most of us have internet devices of some kind, and sometimes multiple devices - laptops, desktops, phones, and so forth. People will want to minimize the amount of devices they have to switch between to get to their preferred entertainment. Networks have speculated that the communal features of the internet, such as the ability to chat about a live event in real-time, have helped bolster their ratings. This may be true, but I think people would prefer the ability to do their chatting on the same device without switching contexts, and once this ability is introduced the demand for it will be high. Additionally, the simplified service and greater ability to pick and choose entertainment on the internet will be key.

Does this mean the TV networks should fear the kind of collapse that the mainstream news media has been suffering? I think not. The demand for high production value scripted shows, reality shows, and live events is still going to remain high. And unlike online news articles, networks have a precedent for charging money for those things. In many cases, people are already paying both monthly TV and internet subscription costs. The most important thing for the industry to remember is that, as Henry Blodget writes, "The best content creators will do just fine. Video storytelling won't go away. Compared to the people who produced Battlestar Galactica, the Sopranos, and West Wing, etc., the folks who post to YouTube generally suck at it." As long as networks find a way to effectively migrate their content to internet-based services, viewers will still flock to it.